European Heat Wave
A
IT WAS the summer, scientists now realise, when felt. We knew that summer 2003 was remarkable; global warming at last made itself unmistakably Britain experienced its record high temperature and continental Europe saw forest fires raging out of control, great rivers drying of a trickle and thousands of heat-related deaths. But just how remarkable is only now becoming clean.
B
The three months of June, July and August were the warmest ever recorded in western and central Europe, with record national highs in Portugal, Germany and Switzerland as well as Britain. And they were the warmest by a very long way Over a great rectangular block of the earth stretching from west of Paris to northern Italy, taking in Switzerland and southern Germany, the average temperature for the summer months was 3.78°C above the long-term norm, said the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia in Norwich, which is one of the world’s lending institutions for the monitoring and analysis of temperature records.
C
That excess might not seem a lot until you are aware of the context – but then you realise it is enormous. There is nothing like this in previous data, anywhere. It is considered so exceptional that Professor Phil Jones, the CRU’s director, is prepared to say openly – in a way few scientists have done before – that the 2003 extreme may be directly attributed, not to natural climate variability, but to global warming caused by human actions.
D
Meteorologists have hitherto contented themselves with the formula that recent high temperatures are consistent with predictions of climate. For the great block of the map – that stretching between 35-50N and 0-20E – the CRU has reliable temperature records dating back to 1781. Using as a baseline the average summer temperature recorded between 1961 and 1990, departures from the temperature norm, or ‘anomalies’: over the area as a whole can easily be plotted. As the graph shows, such as the variability of our climate that over the past 200 years, there have been at least half a dozen anomalies, in terms of excess temperature – the peaks on the graph denoting very hot years – approaching, or even exceeding, 20°C. But there has been nothing remotely like 2003, when the anomaly is nearly four degrees.
E
“This is quite remarkable,” Professor Jones told The Independent. “It’s very unusual in a statistical sense. If this series had a normal statistical distribution, you wouldn’t get this number. There turn period “how often it could be expected to recur” would be something like one in a thou-sand years. If we look at an excess above the average of nearly four degrees, then perhaps nearly three degrees of that is natural variability, because we’ve seen that in past summers. But the final degree of it is likely to be due to global warming, caused by human actions.
F
The summer of 2003 has, in a sense, been one that climate scientists have long been expecting. Until now, the warming has been manifesting itself mainly in winters that have been less cold than in summers that have been much hotter. Last week, the United Nations predicted that winters were warming so quickly that winter sports would die out in Europe’s lower-level ski resorts. But sooner or later the unprecedented hot summer was bound to come, and this year it did.
G
One of the most dramatic features of the summer was the hot nights, especially in the first half of August. In Paris, the temperature never dropped below 230°C (73.40°F) at all between 7 and 14 August, and the city recorded its warmest-ever night on 11-12 August, when the mercury did not drop below 25.50°C (77.90°F). Germany recorded its warmest-ever night at Weinbiet in the Rhine valley with a lowest figure of 27.60°C (80.60°F) on 13 August, and similar record-breaking night-time temperatures were recorded in Switzerland and Italy.
H
The 15,000 excess deaths in France during August, compared with previous years, have been related to the high night-time temperatures. The number gradually increased during the first 12 days of the month, peaking at about 2,000 per day on the night of 12-13 August, the fell off dramatically after 14 August when the minimum temperatures fell by about 50C. The elderly were most affected, with a 70 per cent increase in mortality rate in those aged 75-94.
I
For Britain, the year as a whole is likely to be the warmest ever recorded, but despite the high temperature record on 10 August, the summer itself – defined as the June, July and August period – still comes behind 1976 and 1955, when there were longer periods of intense heat. At the moment, the year is on course to be the third-hottest ever in the global temperature record, which goes back to 1856, behind 1988 and 2002 but when all the records for October, November and December are collated, it might move into second place, Professor Jones said. The 10 hottest years in the record have all now occurred since 1990. Professor Jones is in no doubt about the astonishing nature of European summer of 2003. “The temperatures recorded were out of all proportion to the previous record,” he said. “It was the warmest summer in the past 500 years and probably way beyond that it was enormously exceptional.”
J
His colleagues at the University of East Anglia’s Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research are now planning a special study of it. “It was a summer that has not: been experienced before, either in terms of the temperature extremes that were reached, or the range and diversity of the impacts of the extreme heat,” said the centre’s executive director, Professor Mike Hulme. “It will certainly have left its mark on a number of countries, as to how they think and plan for climate change in the future, much as the 2000 floods have revolutionised the way the Government is thinking about flooding in the UK. “The 2003 heat wave will have similar repercussions across Europe.”
Questions 14-19
Do the following statements agree with the information given in Reading Passage 2?
In boxes 14-19 on your answer sheet, write
TRUE if the statement is true
FALSE if the statement is false
NOT GIVEN if the information is not given in the passage
14 The average summer temperature in 2003 is approximately four degrees higher than that of the past.
15 Jones believes the temperature statistic is within the normal range.
16 Human factor is one of the reasons that caused hot summer.
17 In large city, people usually measure temperature twice a day.
18 Global warming has obvious effect of warmer winter instead of hotter summer before 2003.
19 New ski resorts are to be built on a high-altitude spot.
Questions 20-21
Answer the questions below using NO MORE THAN THREE WORDS AND/OR NUMBERS from the passage for each answer.
Write your answers in boxes 20-21 on your answer sheet.
20 What are the two hottest years in Britain besides 2003?
21 What will affect UK government policies besides climate change according to Hulme?
Questions 22-26
Complete the summary below using NO MORE THAN TWO WORDS from the passage.
Write your answers in boxes 22-26 on your answer sheet
In the summer of 2003, thousands of extra death occurred in the country of 22…………………….. Moreover, world-widely, the third record of hottest summer date from 23…………………………., after the year of 24 ………………………….. According to Jones, all the 10 hottest years happened from 25 ……………………….. However, summer of 2003 was at the peak of previous 26………………………… years, perhaps even more.
Question 27
Choose the correct letter A, B, C or D
Write your answer in box 27 on your answer sheet.
Which one can be best served as the title of this passage in the following options?
A Global Warming effect
B Global Warming in Europe
C The Effects of hot temperature
D Hottest summer in Europe
ANSWER
14. TRUE
15. FALSE
16. TRUE
17. NOT GIVEN
18. TRUE
19. NOT GIVEN
20. 1976 and 1995
21. 2000 floods
22. France
23. 1856
24. 1998 and 2002
25. 1990
26. 500
27. D
